The Vampire Diaries’ Mid Season 4 Fatality Odds

TV Guide reported that, “There will be mass casualties in the mid season finale, including someone you’ve known since Season 1” . Looks like we’ll be losing a beloved character very soon in episode 9, “O Come, All Ye Faithful” (granted, they find workarounds for many deaths in Mystic Falls, but until I see this play out for certain I will continue to speculate away). Here are my fatality odds for the characters we’ve known since the beginning:

• 25% Tyler: I feel as though Tyler’s got a major chance to meet his untimely end, particularly after the latest reveal that his wolf gal pal Hayley is working with Professor Shane and her ominous request to “keep him out” of whatever it is going down. All the unsired hybrids seem ripe for war and could easily fill out the mass casualty quota, and Tyler is in a prime spot to get caught in the middle.
• 17% Jeremy: It doesn’t really feel like now is the time for him to die, but seeing as how he’s the only family left on Elena’s list there would certainly be a tragic twist to it. Plus, he’s one of those characters that have had multiple near misses and he’s becoming more and more caught in the narrative whirlwind. We know a new hunter will be brought in later this season, too, so the whole cure storyline would not be in jeopardy with his loss.
• 15% Matt:  Poor Matt. It’s got to be tough being the last normal human out of your supernatural circle of friends; he’s been walking around with a target on his back for a while now. His saving grace will likely be the fact that this show needs some human representation, and he’s the solid moral compass of the group.
• 12% Mayor Lockwood/10% Sheriff Forbes: The mayor or sheriff would be easy kills who wouldn’t really stir the pot too much. It’s not like the kids need parents around anyways, everyone seems to just permanently live off very large inheritances in Mystic Falls. These two were even booted off the council, not that there’s much of that left anymore…
• 8% Bonnie: She seems to be pretty safe to me. She’s obviously integral to Shane’s shifty plan and is going to be a dangerous player once we find out what he’s been hypnotizing her to do. Her witchy element is useful to maintain going forward.
• 7% Caroline: She’s such a fan favorite and has so much potential to continue an intriguing journey, I think we can count her in the clear.
• 3% Katherine: Katherine is too much fun and too smart to kill off.  She’s great for adding a surprise doppelganger twist to the story from time to time.
• 1% Stefan/1% Elena/1% Damon: Rest assured that the core love triangle players are safe, it wouldn’t be The Vampire Diaries without them!

It’s been a slow start for season 4, very few deaths; just a few hybrids and Connor, the vampire hunter. Rebecca’s been daggered, but that’s a normal routine for her. So it does feel about time for a major death in Mystic Falls, especially with all the dominoes that the writers have been lining up under our noses. While we’ve been focusing in on Elena’s new romantic developments with Damon (steamy, hot developments) and all this sire bond business; Bonnie’s been finding her magic through unsuspected shady means, hybrids are all being unsired, Jeremy’s going rogue hunter, and according to Connor, completely-random April is somehow at the center of all of this. The Big Bad is definitely on its way to Mystic Falls. Now, all this being said, TVD loves to throw off the wall surprises into the mix, so really anything goes! Got any other theories?

What do you think? Leave a comment.