The Vampire Diaries’ Mid Season 4 Fatality Odds


TV Guide reported that, “There will be mass casualties in the mid season finale, including someone you’ve known since Season 1” . Looks like we’ll be losing a beloved character very soon in episode 9, “O Come, All Ye Faithful” (granted, they find workarounds for many deaths in Mystic Falls, but until I see this play out for certain I will continue to speculate away). Here are my fatality odds for the characters we’ve known since the beginning:

  • 25% Tyler: I feel as though Tyler’s got a major chance to meet his untimely end, particularly after the latest reveal that his wolf gal pal Hayley is working with Professor Shane and her ominous request to “keep him out” of whatever it is going down. All the unsired hybrids seem ripe for war and could easily fill out the mass casualty quota, and Tyler is in a prime spot to get caught in the middle.
  • 17% Jeremy: It doesn’t really feel like now is the time for him to die, but seeing as how he’s the only family left on Elena’s list there would certainly be a tragic twist to it. Plus, he’s one of those characters that have had multiple near misses and he’s becoming more and more caught in the narrative whirlwind. We know a new hunter will be brought in later this season, too, so the whole cure storyline would not be in jeopardy with his loss.
  • 15% Matt:  Poor Matt. It’s got to be tough being the last normal human out of your supernatural circle of friends; he’s been walking around with a target on his back for a while now. His saving grace will likely be the fact that this show needs some human representation, and he’s the solid moral compass of the group.
  • 12% Mayor Lockwood/10% Sheriff Forbes: The mayor or sheriff would be easy kills who wouldn’t really stir the pot too much. It’s not like the kids need parents around anyways, everyone seems to just permanently live off very large inheritances in Mystic Falls. These two were even booted off the council, not that there’s much of that left anymore…
  • 8% Bonnie: She seems to be pretty safe to me. She’s obviously integral to Shane’s shifty plan and is going to be a dangerous player once we find out what he’s been hypnotizing her to do. Her witchy element is useful to maintain going forward.
  • 7% Caroline: She’s such a fan favorite and has so much potential to continue an intriguing journey, I think we can count her in the clear.
  • 3% Katherine: Katherine is too much fun and too smart to kill off.  She’s great for adding a surprise doppelganger twist to the story from time to time.
  • 1% Stefan/1% Elena/1% Damon: Rest assured that the core love triangle players are safe, it wouldn’t be The Vampire Diaries without them!

It’s been a slow start for season 4, very few deaths; just a few hybrids and Connor, the vampire hunter. Rebecca’s been daggered, but that’s a normal routine for her. So it does feel about time for a major death in Mystic Falls, especially with all the dominoes that the writers have been lining up under our noses. While we’ve been focusing in on Elena’s new romantic developments with Damon (steamy, hot developments) and all this sire bond business; Bonnie’s been finding her magic through unsuspected shady means, hybrids are all being unsired, Jeremy’s going rogue hunter, and according to Connor, completely-random April is somehow at the center of all of this. The Big Bad is definitely on its way to Mystic Falls. Now, all this being said, TVD loves to throw off the wall surprises into the mix, so really anything goes! Got any other theories?

What do you think? Leave a comment.

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Rosanne spends her free time hanging out with her husband, constantly searching for films that are exciting, evocative, enriching, or emotional. She also likes alliteration.

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  1. AnnaLar

    I wish that Bonnie and Jeremy would disappear from this show. IMO they are both horrible actors and both of their character developments are ridiculous. I’m sure Bonnie won’t die though as they sure need their one and only witch to stay alive.

    • Petra Foster

      Doubt that they will kill Jeremy. His hunter storyline just started… but I agree that his character (and performance) is low.

  2. Getter Trumsi

    Klaus? No mention of Klaus dying and it having a 0% chance? Interesting. And I agree with Anna on Bonnie but I like Jeremy’s new plot thing that is going on. Nice post!

    • OperationCharlie

      The key was someone we’ve known since season 1. That doesn’t mean Klaus ISN’T a possibility, but he doesn’t fit this particular speculation of who we’ve known since S1 may bite the dust.

  3. Petra Foster

    It is hard to kill of Tyler as there will be a lack of Werewolf (okay, ex-werewolf) in the show… and he as pretty much taken the spotlight for that species.

    • Rosanne

      Valid point, the werewolves beyond Tyler, and recently Hayley, are basically filling go-to henchman roles. So I’m curious to see how things get amped up with the Tyler/Klaus war and the dark ritual that’s coming.

  4. I have a quite valid theory. You know the new segment that they started this season at the very beginning of the episode. The one were each character present themselves “I am a vampire… me too… mystic falls is our home…” I can’t remember how it went – but I would guess that the characters that appear in that segment will not get killed. They seem to be the ones that the showrunner is investing in and remember, it would be solid to think that this segment will continue throughout the season, so it would be strange if they would kill one of them and continue to run it… Sorry I am ranting but I think I am on to something (=

    • Rosanne

      Hmm, I went back and watched the cold opening your talking about and there could be something there. They’ve been slightly changing it with each episode, though. If you go back to the first episode opener of the season every character is included, even, Matt, the Sheriff and Mayor. Maybe they’ve just been phasing them out steadily so when they do die it will feel like more of a surprise?

  5. Getter Trumsi

    Yay, the mayor died. Not that I’m happy but I always felt like the parent characters were a bit in the way at times. But then again, all the parental people are now almost gone.. I miss Alaric!

  6. Payal Marathe

    My comment is obviously super late, but I just wanted to say I think you did a really good job with subtle humor in this post! The Vampire Diaries was definitely less entertaining this season than it has been in the past, but you managed to cover the different characters and turn your idea into a fun, entertaining read.

  7. So in a sense there is an element of predictability that makes this show unlike Game of Thrones.

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